What if the entire refugee situation is just an introduction?
What if it all adds up to a one whole?
First ‘what if’ – Russian activity
Russia reminds the world of its imperial aspirations by pursuing a brutal international policy. But at first Putin – and other proponents of Russian government – eliminated internal opposition by striking in their potential threats: such as rich entrepreneurs (Mikhail Khodorkovsky) & journalists (Anna Politkovskaya); or forcing them to go abroad (Roman Abramovich).
Some of those people who feared the violent consequences, agreed to cooperate with the Moscow Kremlin. It was pragmatic choice because in Russia there is no better introduction to prosperity than the consensus with Putin. Several years under the reign of drunken Yeltsin led Russia to a very bad economic situation, several years of joint Putin and Medvedev reign reaffirmed (partially) the interest of the world (not as most Russians possibly would want to – for instance through any economics success – but through military actions). Let’s go through the timeline: in 2007 Ingushetia conflict erupted – of course, the conflicts in this region lasted much longer, but only since 2007 Russia became that active in Caucasus. The Russians took the issue very seriously, by 2015 almost quenching clashes in the area. The very moment later the Russians militarily ‘aided’ Abkhazia and South Ossetia in their isolationist activities and helped the two regions in their relative independence of Georgia (related to a de facto subjection to Russia).
With these two actions Russia has built a great foothold for potential conflict with Turkey (some sort of Georgian coastal corridor on the seaside plus a very close distance from the capital of Tbilisi to South Ossetia).
In 2014 Russia in a similar way took control over a large part of Ukrainian territory, strengthening its presence in the Azov Sea region. In fact they took control over a nearly all Eastern and Northern sides of the Black Sea. Meanwhile you could think of Luhansk or Donetsk as some sort of “post-Crimean show-off”. It’s not. Donbass Area produced about 30% of Ukraine’s exports before the war, quite a massive injection of cash and a source of revenue for Russia. Now think of the distance between Crimea and Romania, Bulgaria or Istanbul, especially since Sevastopol is still the basis for the vast multitude of Russian troops and navy. Romania and Bulgaria are large but rather poor countries. Both are rather poorly guarded on the East and South borders – the seaside and proximity to other EU countries do not require much pressure on territorial control. Well, The Soft Underbelly of Europe has lost none of its name.
Meanwhile, Turkey allocates the majority of its troops to the South and the border with Iran. Whilst the Northern part of the country seems to be relatively safe, since the boundary line is the Black Sea, it is exactly same sea that was quite monopolized by Russia lately. Southern territories, overrun by Muslim extremist groups, are exposed to a large wave of refugees who are fleeing from Libya and Syria through Turkey toward Europe. It requires constant monitoring of Turkey military forces. Even if Turkey has large army they are not ready to control every single piece of their border all the time.
Other ‘what if”s – China, Africa, Americas
But this ‘what if’ is not only focused on Russian activity. You all know how massive the refugee problem is. Africa and Middle-East are boiling, they will explode with even more causes to solve. So what if China’s international activity is focused not only on the economic expansion? They grow their influence in Africa and Asia, for instance a huge number of students from developing countries is invited to China to learn at local universities and go back to their countries (with such a nice debt – gratitude). In the same time China builds a huge number man-made islands in the area of the South China Sea. That expand their real territory to one of the richest natural sources in the entire Asia, giving them closer look at those lands.
„China asserts sovereignty over 80 percent of the resource-rich sea, which includes some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, and has been aggressively staking its claims by building large artificial islands. The United States and its Asian allies have vigorously opposed China’s territorial moves. With no one backing down, the impasse has raised the specter of a localized military conflict.” LINK
What if this is just a begining? Africa is on fire, only in recent years they faced multiple conflicts in various countries (such as Operation Linda Nchi, Heglig Crisis, RENAMO insurgency, M23 Rebellion, Northern Mali conflict, Mugabe and situation in Zimbabwe). What if those conflicts escalate? What if they are just a few embers of future Pan-Continental conflicts?
Even a relatively calm Americas have its drug wars in Mexico, boiling atmosphere in Colombia, internal conflict in Peru …
What if they boil together?
What if some decision-makers choose to escalate them into one global death race?
What if there is some purpose to do so? Maybe economy needs another ‘boosts’ by which many understand the very need of war?
I would love to know the answers.
People are forced to live in this world where everything may end up as conflict.
I wonder whether it is easier to run away and proclaim some independent libertarian state in the middle of the sea or try to fight it, make progression not revolution. Is there?